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The economic growth on-going
From the beginning of 2007 the GDP growth in Uzbekistan makes 9,1% exceeding that of last year by 2,5 times. It is the highest increase rate within the years of independence. These statistics were presented last Tuesday at a governmental meeting, presided by the Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoev, on the results of socio-economic development of Uzbekistan in the first quarter of 2007.

The process of economic growth is continuing in the Republic. The results between January and March this year allow us to make such a decisive conclusion. At the same time, it should be stressed that the 12% industrial increase, the highest rate within the years of independence, made much contribution to the GDP growth in the first three months. The agriculture has gone up 5,5% that is also the highest rate, taking into account the seasonal production factor in this sector.

The strict monetary and credit policy and observation of predictive indexes of money supply allowed the country to guarantee the stable level of monetary rates and achieve inflation reduction to 2,9%. The State budget is executed with proficit of 1,7% against the GDP.

The Deputy Minister of Economy informed the UT "the basic factor of industrial growth is the increase of internal demand resulted from the modernization of industry, reduction of tax burden, strengthening the financial state of enterprises, increasing their floating funds and real incomes of the population. It caused the increase of enterprises' demand for investment goods and that of people for goods of local manufacturers, primarily, motor-car construction and home appliances". According to the Uzbek Ministry of Economy, the growth of investment activeness is the main factor of economic recovery. As a result of three months, the total investment in the main capital increased 36,4% that is guaranteed by the increase of foreign investments and credits 1,8 times including direct foreign investments 1,6 times. The basic growth of eccentric investments, 77,5% of all investments, is reached due to direct foreign investments, own funds of enterprises and bank credits.

The Ministry of Economy informs that not only the demand of largest enterprises for investments in the key industries is expanding but also small business that uses actively up-to-date mini-equipment in its production. The high activeness in the first quarter, in turn, is reached due to the dynamic development of raw material production.

The Deputy Director of Center for Economic Studies Avazbek Sadikov believes that ?if this tendency continues, it will undoubtedly provide wide opportunities for a long-term macroeconomic stability and balance, accelerating the structural reconstruction of economy and increasing the real incomes of people. It is proved by the increase of both internal and external demand caused the high economic growth and retail commodity turnover of 16,5% and paid services of 25%. The structural reforms in human services related with use of modern computer technologies and financial and transport services can be noticed in comparison with the first quarter of 2006. Totally, the share of human services in the GDP has increased 43,5%.

In an interview with UT, Director of Center for Studying Privatization, Development of Corporative Management and Securities Market under the State Property Committee of Uzbekistan Igor Butikov noted that "the economic growth is tightly connected with construction boom that gradually comprises all the country. Only for the first three months the volume of contraction grew 12,8%. Investing in infrastructure is a period of dynamic growth in all countries of the world. These investments are continuing and the economic growth must go on the up-coming year. The locomotives of industrial expansion remain such sectors as motor-car construction and light industry. The fuel and power engineering are rapidly developing as well. During the first quarter 43 large infrastructural and industrial establishments were launched. The country began to implement a number of wide-scaled projects, financed by the Fund for Reconstruction and Development of Uzbekistan, on mining and processing of poly-metallic ores and installing the compressor stations in gas deposits. Two fertilizer manufacturers started to realize the first project in Uzbekistan using the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol and seven textile companies were also launched in the country".

According to the Director of ERAKO Consulting Company Pavel Rudnitsky, "new projects in textile industry confirm the entry of serious partners to this market. Even today they are working at setting textile clusters ensuring industrial assemble: from fiber processing to manufacturing ready-made garments. The implementation of program on technical modernization of light industries positively influenced the increase of consumer goods manufacture. It should be noted that 25 of 66 companies, included in the program, have been technically modernized and in 21 of them the process is on-going and, finally, the program implementation is to start according to the schedule in the period of 2007 and 2008". The Deputy Director of the Center for Economic Studies Nishanbay Sirojiddinov thinks that "the policy of supporting the export industries and encouraging finished-goods export makes a great contribution to the economic growth. The stably high increase rates in foreign commerce in recent years witnesses it. In the first quarter this year the export has increased 21,1% and balance of foreign commerce makes around US$ 600 million".

According to him, "enterprises invest more in industries where reduction of tax burden continues and development of taxation system expanded their financial opportunities. Strengthening the system of protecting enterprise entities' rights and development of inspection system and its reduction, increasing the role of justice agencies and juridical system in resolving disputes among governmental bodies and economic entities are improving the investment climate and it means the intensification of investment activity in Uzbekistan".

The expert of Center for Economic Studies paid attention to on-going reformation of agriculture where since the beginning of this year 329 agricultural cooperatives (shirkats) have been reorganized to 25,2 thousand farms. The support of small business and entrepreneurship guarantees increase of manufacturing agricultural produce and share of small business in the GDP to 33,2%. According to Janosh Vanika, Head of Hungarian Commercial Office in Uzbekistan, "the Government of Uzbekistan creates all conditions for business development. President Islam Karimov's initiatives in the banking development are worth special attention because banks are basis of supporting the economic potential of the country. I think that Uzbekistan has reached the level of international standards, and the steps taken by the authorities of Uzbekistan develop the business environment".

The President of the US Chamber of Commerce Donald Nicholson believes that "the Uzbek Government pays special attention to the development of powerful private sector where small and medium-sized enterprises enjoy development opportunities. Today foreign investors associate their high hopes with realization of further development reforms in Uzbekistan".

Generally, summarizing the first quarter, it should be noted that implementation of basic priorities of economic program for 2007 singled out in President Islam Karimov's report at a meeting of the government in February this year including modernization of, technical and technological renewal of industries, further liberalization of tax policy, support for the dynamic development of small business and private enterprise, resolution of employment and increase of people's welfare and strengthening the international activity for attracting foreign investments resulted in positive structural reformations in the economy and reaching high rates of macroeconomic and sectorial development.


Date: Apr 23, 2007


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